Written on 09/03/08
One of the "scientific" justifications for pontification by Al Gore and other hucksters is computer modeling. These people look into the camera with a straight face and tell you the models show that man made global warming is occuring and is a scientific fact.... the debate is over Gore says.
As a computer scientist, I can make a computer model show that you are an alligator if you like. Don't like reptiles? OK, I'll make you a monkey then.... or any other outcome that you desire. All I do is tweak a few parameters and Presto! you are an elephant if that is the outcome needed to keep that research grant money rolling in.
Simulations and models can be useful, but when it comes to predicting the temperature of the earth 100 years from now they are useless. Want proof?
Volcanoes and sunspot activities can greatly affect the energy that reaches the earth and thereby greatly affect the final outcome of the temperature of the earth during a given period. Now let me ask you, do you think these people can say for sure how many volcanoes will erupt and what the magnitude of those eruptions will be in the next 100 years?
Do you think they can tell you precisely what the solar activity will be during that time? Hint: In 2006 they predicted as many as 18 hurricanes.... going to be a bad year for the US they said. We had zero hurricanes. Last month they were surprised at the lack of sunspot activity.
So ask them to tell you precisely what it will be in, oh say the year 2056 for example. And if they are sure of what it will be then demand proof they have correctly predicted in advance exactly what the solar activity was going to be over the last few years. They can't do it. They can guess. They can estimate. But they can't say for sure.
Now consider hurricane Gustav with non stop news coverage for 5 days. They had lots of different computer models, all of which had different predictions of an event that would take place within days....not 100 years from now.
Even when the hurricane was within 24 hours of landfall they could not say for sure exactly where it would hit and what the category would be. Why? Because the computer models are simply not that accurate.
So the next time you hear Al Gore or other global warming nuts spouting off about how they know the earth is going to warm 1 degree in the next 100 years because of man's activities, just imagine them as a carnival barker trying to get ignorant suckers into their circus tent.
And if you hear a Presidential candidate telling you that we will look back at this moment and realize that it was the time the earth began to heal and the oceans began to recede then you know that this is almost certainly a carnival barker who is simply on a bigger stage.
They hire carnival barkers for their speaking ability.... which is Obama's main asset provided he has a teleprompter. To confirm my suspicions about his true experience and background though, I just want to hear him say...
"HURRY, HURRY, HURRY..... LADIES AND GENTLEMEN.... RIGHT THIS WAY......"
Then we will know for sure that he has in fact held at least one job in his life.
J. Cogburn
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