Stock Market and Political Commentary

Profit of 17.03% - Sell This Stock Now?

Based on technicals, fundmentals, market conditions, and other opportunities in the stock market we think it might be wise to take profit in the stock shown below now and to look for the next trade in the coming days and weeks ahead. 

 

Action: SELL

Stock or ETF:  General Steel Holdings Inc (GSI)

Current Price: $4.74

Gain: 17.03%

Graph

Disclaimers

Based on technicals, fundmentals, market conditions, and other opportunities in the stock market we think it might be wise to take profit in the stock shown below now and to look for the next trade in the coming days and weeks ahead. 

 

Action: SELL

Stock or ETF:  General Steel Holdings Inc (GSI)

Current Price: $4.74

Gain: 17.03%

Graph

Disclaimers

Profit of 6.95% - Sell This Stock Now?

Based on technicals, fundmentals, market conditions, and other opportunities in the stock market we think it might be wise to take profit in the stock shown below now and to look for the next trade in the coming days and weeks ahead. 

 

Action: SELL

Stock:  RAM Energy Resources Inc (RAME)

Current Price: $1.23

Gain: 6.95%

Graph

Disclaimers

Based on technicals, fundmentals, market conditions, and other opportunities in the stock market we think it might be wise to take profit in the stock shown below now and to look for the next trade in the coming days and weeks ahead. 

 

Action: SELL

Stock:  RAM Energy Resources Inc (RAME)

Current Price: $1.23

Gain: 6.95%

Graph

Disclaimers

Sell This Stock at 13.97% Profit?

Based on technicals, fundmentals, market conditions, and other opportunities in the stock market we think it might be wise to take profit in the stock shown below now and to look for the next trade in the coming days and weeks ahead. 

 

Action: SELL

Stock:  Dryships Inc (DRYS)

Current Price: $19.25

Gain: 13.97%

Graph

Disclaimers

Are Presidential Polls Skewed by Technology?

Back in the good old days most of folks had a single phone in their house and even some of those were on a party line.  For those too young to know what that means, imagine if you had to share your cell phone with 2, 4, or even 8 people depending on the size of your "party line".

The question is, what effect is technology having on pollsters ability to contact a random and representative sample of likely voters? 

In our house we have caller ID and normally do not answer any calls unless we recognize the number.  If it is important we figure the people will leave a message.  So the question is whether these types of technologies would be more likely to be in the homes of one party or the other, and if so, how that would skew the results.

And the latest trend seems to be that people are dropping their home phone and simply having a cell phone.  Again it is not clear how easily these folks can be contacted based on phone records and various laws against commercial calls to cell phone users. 

We'll find out next week how accurate or far off the mark these national polls were in 2008 and perhaps get some insight into whether the new technologies played a roll in the accuracy of poll results.

RWG

Can McCain Still Win the Election?

A friend writes....

What's your thoughts on McCain's chances?

My response..........

I think McCain still has at least a 50/50  chance of winning, but certainly it is no longer a sure thing like I believe it was before the economy went into the tank and he screwed up by putting his campaign on hold to get into the bailout mess.   I wrote a few articles on the blog about this; here are a couple of examples:   Bradley Factor   The 5% Factor     As I said in the second one, an irresistable force is about to meet an immovable object so it will be interesting to see which one wins out.   There are a number of x factors in this election, but I'm thinking one of them is the early voting.  It is my understanding this has been expanded well beyond what it used to be with absentee ballots and now many people vote early.   I myself took a huge risk yesterday by casting my vote before hearing Obama's 30 minute infomercial..... for some reason I didn't think he could convince me with the same teleprompter speech he has been giving all year.... and I didn't plan on listening to it anyway because recently I've started tuning out the democrats of all stripes.  Normally I listen to all sides but am now tired of hearing them after months of campaigning.   In my opinion the real keys to this election are the following in the swing states:     1. How many more blacks than normal actually vote?   2. How many more young folks than normal actually vote?   3. How much impact does the illegal activites from ACORN have on the election?   4. What percentage of votes will be drawn away by the independent candidates?     But the biggest thing I believe is this:   5. How many democrats will actually vote for McCain instead of Obama?    My guess is that there will be a lot more of the working class that are registered democrat that actually pull the lever for McCain than the polls show, but we shall see.  If they do, then every democrat that does that is providing a 2 for 1 vote... i.e., not only does Obama lose one but McCain gains one.   I'm still not convinced that all the working folks in this country are buying the Obama "spread the wealth around" ideas and if only a few percent of them bolt to McCain in the swing states then he will win.   So in the end we shall just have to see how this turns out.  But a whole bunch of democrat lawyers have already moved into Florida so if it is really close look for lawsuits and recounts....and who knows maybe even a few riots thrown in just for fun.   RWG

Buy This Stock Now at $2.68?

This stock appears ready for a rapid rise in price based on technical and fundamental reasons.  More importantly the risk/reward ratio appears to be in the buyers favor at this time and price.

Buying a stock or ETF at a price more than 5% above the price shown would be considered “chasing” the equity and can often be a mistake; it is not recommended. Disclaimers

 

Action: BUY

Stock:  Navios Maritime Holdings (NM)

Current Price: $2.68

Graph

This stock appears ready for a rapid rise in price based on technical and fundamental reasons.  More importantly the risk/reward ratio appears to be in the buyers favor at this time and price.

Buying a stock or ETF at a price more than 5% above the price shown would be considered “chasing” the equity and can often be a mistake; it is not recommended. Disclaimers

 

Action: BUY

Stock:  Navios Maritime Holdings (NM)

Current Price: $2.68

Graph

Buy This Stock at $16.89?

This stock appears ready for a rapid rise in price based on technical and fundamental reasons.  More importantly the risk/reward ratio appears to be in the buyers favor at this time and price.

Buying a stock or ETF at a price more than 5% above the price shown would be considered “chasing” the equity and can often be a mistake; it is not recommended. Disclaimers

 

Action: BUY

Stock:  Dryships Inc (DRYS)

Current Price: $16.89

Graph

Buy This Stock at $1.15?

This stock appears ready for a rapid rise in price based on technical and fundamental reasons.  More importantly the risk/reward ratio appears to be in the buyers favor at this time and price.

Buying a stock or ETF at a price more than 5% above the price shown would be considered “chasing” the equity and can often be a mistake; it is not recommended. Disclaimers

 

Action: BUY

Stock:  RAM Energy Resources Inc (RAME)

Current Price: $1.15

Graph

Will Stocks Rebound Next Year?

The year 2008 has been a disaster for the stock market, but is there hope for next year?  You say the market surely must be ready for a rebound after such a terrible showing this year, right?  It could, but history shows that does not have to be the case.

Take the 2000 - 2002 period for instance. The information below shows the Nasdaq, which trades a lot of technology stocks, had 3 terrible years in a row.

Nasdaq

• In 2000, the Nasdaq lost 39.28% of its value (4,069.31 to 2,470.52).
• In 2001, the Nasdaq lost 21.05% of its value (2,470.52 to 1,950.40).
• In 2002, the Nasdaq lost 31.53% of its value (1,950.40 to 1,335.51).

The technology-heavy NASDAQ stock market peaked on March 10, 2000, hitting an intra-day high of 5,132.52 and closing at 5,048.62, so the drop in 2000 was even more than 39.28% if you count if from the peak in the spring until the end of the year.  But it wasn't done.  .

As you can see the market can continue sliding, with occasional sharp but short rallies here and there, for 2 or even 3 years.  So even though 2008 has been bad it offers no assurance that 2009 will be good.  And if look you up my earlier commentary on Long Term Chart signs you will see that 2009 may  be another down year in stocks also.

There will always be opportunities for quick trades and quick profits even in bear markets, but investors must be careful not to get trapped in stocks that will not come back to pre bear market levels for years, if ever.

General Motors is a good example.  It was trading over $30 a share when this meltdown started late last year, but now is in the $6 range.  Those who followed the simple instructions in our Beat the Market software avoided this financial disaster.  An investment of a few dollars and a few hours could have saved you from losing thousands or even millions of dollars in this stock depending on the size of your investment.

Learn the 4 steps to successful investing and avoid devastating financial losses in bear markets of the future.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_downturn_of_2002

RWG

Election TBD by Stock Market or Bradley Factor?

It is shaping up to be quite an interesting election with the future of America and indeed the whole world at stake.  A number of opposing forces are at work.  Take the collapsing stock market and the Bradley factor for example.

If the economy is not doing well at election time then the party in power at the presidential level most always lose the presidential election because Americans vote their pocketbook as the saying goes. This would favor the democrats this year as the economy has suddenly become a concern due to a collapsing stock market.

Many of the pollsters are showing Obama with a huge lead, but are they accurate this year? For more analysis on the many x factors in play see our recent post Presidential Election Analysis - The 5% Factor.

On the other hand it is unclear how many of the polls are wrong because of the Bradley Factor.  This theory states that people often tell a pollster they will vote for the minority candidate but simply don't do it on election day.

The bottom line in this election really comes down to this.  Does the population want a change in party at the top bad enough to elect a man who's qualifications really don't qualify him to be a Senator much less a President?  When they get into the privacy of that voting booth, will they feel comfortable enough to vote the most liberal Senator in America into the White House knowing his past associations and thin (non existant?) resume? (see analysis between Obama and Palin)

We shall see in a few days.  But apparently one thing we won't see is a certified birth certificate from Barack Obama before election day, or at least not in PA unless something changes.  The court in their "wisdom" decided the people didn't have standing to require the man to present proof that he meets the Constitutional requirement regarding his place of birth, i.e., being a naturalized citizen.

And believing he is above the law he has simply refused to show a certifed birth certificate to end this controversy.  So he is either committing fraud or is a lunatic.  But in either case no one dares to make this man comply with laws; those are for mere mortals you see.

If the American people give him a large majority in Congress too then Obama will forget being President and simply be King.  He's already talked about healing the oceans which shows he suffers from delusions of grandeur far beyond a simple public office even at the White House. 

And just keep in mind that if Obama is elected his court appointments will have a far greater impact on this nation for a much longer period of time than his Presidency.  It is bad now, but I fear not say it can't get worse because I know it can, and if Obama wins, I know it will.

RWG